Need help with my Geography question – I’m studying for my class.
Weather forecasting, it’s not an easy business but hey somebody’s gotta do it, right? Generally speaking, despite the technological advancements of the 21st century and the neat graphics and depictions we may see on t.v. the fact of the matter is what is “predicted” is very often very far from what actually “occurs”. Let’s take a brief look at a few recent examples:
(1) A few years ago all eyes were on a developing strong El Nino, the forecasts for several months ahead were featured all over the media. Here’s a neat graphic courtesy of the CPC which stands for the “Climate Prediction Center” outlining the predictions for the upcoming winter season of 2015/2016:
A more crude but still legible version (what they don’t show you on t.v.) of a 3 month “climate” forecast
(2) Let’s fast forward to the last winter season we just experienced by looking at a CPC (Climate Prediction Center) forecast for the upcoming three month winter season of Dec.18, Jan. 19, Feb. 19, issued during October of 2018:
Actual results:
Not to mention the record cold and snow (beating more than a century of winter occurrences) in what were supposed to be warm areas on the “experts” forecasted maps of Seattle, Vegas, Flagstaff, Phoenix, Tucson etc. etc..remember snow flew across Malibu, Irvine and many others places across SoCal. LA broke a 57 year cold record for February and this has been the first time in 142 years were the thermometer did not reach 70 that whole month.
(3) How about a 2 week forecast?
They quickly updated it 2 weeks later for the same period:
And a week and a half after that:
The predictions look correct though when you hold them up to a mirror!
(4) When it didn’t rain much for several years the predictions were for a drought that would probably last “forever” brought on, of course, by “climate change” :
5/9/2016 –
California Braces for Unending Drought
Gov. Jerry Brown of California last month in New York. He signed an executive order on Monday making permanent the water conservation efforts put in place during the state’s five-year drought.CreditMary Altaffer/Associated Press
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/10/us/california-drought-water-restrictions-permanent.html
Thanks El Niño, But California’s Drought Is Probably Forever
https://www.wired.com/2016/05/thanks-el-nino-californias-drought-probably-forever/
But then the “forever drought” finally moved out:
California is drought-free for the first time in nearly a decade
Alejandra Reyes-Velarde
Mar 14, 2019 | 11:25 AM
Pedestrians cross First Street in Boyle Heights as rain clouds partially obscure the downtown L.A. skyline on March 6. (Luis Sinco / Los Angeles Times)
It’s official: California is 100% drought-free.
https://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-rain-california-drought-conditions-20190314-story.html
(5) When I came across a chart of Arctic ice predictions (IPCC and various other groups and individuals) overlayed on a chart of actual ice data which not only failed to show any of the predictions materializing of ice melting but to the contrary a slight but noticeable increase I contacted the Danish Meteorological Institue that was the supposed source of that data. Never-mind the initial language barrier that came with that first attempted communication they confirmed to me that, indeed, the data was theirs and it was, in fact, accurate.
That Arctic Ice began invading the United States as most of the Great Lakes were mostly frozen over with Lakes Huron, Superior and Eerie are about 95% covered in ice, and it was nearly mid-March!:
(6) Here’s one of many articles (published less than a year ago in Dec. 21 2018) with the news and prediction that climate change will lead the butterflies toextinction!
“We’re losing monarchs fast—here’s why”
Western Monarch Thanksgiving Count found that the number of west-coast monarchs spending the winter in California had plunged to only 20,456 butterflies—a drop of 86 percent since last year. And the number of eastern monarchs overwintering in Mexico this year has dropped 15 percent since last year, for a total decline of more than 80 percent over the past 20 years,
according to the National Wildlife Federation.
This year’s count is only the latest in a string of bad news for the charismatic butterfly that makes one of the longest known insect migrations. The culprit? Humans. The twin forces of human-caused climate change and habitat loss are now threatening North American monarch butterflies with extinction.
But then not even 3 months later this happened and we were treated to quite the site across Southern California!:
“A Swarm of a ‘Billion’ Painted Lady Butterflies Is Migrating Through Southern California”
You may remember that spectacle – I do…never before had I seen so many butterflies in swarms of hundreds, I had to try to dodge them while on the freeways of SoCal earlier this spring!
On that note, attached you will find some interesting reading related to something known as ”The Butterfly Effect”. Perhaps you have heard of this concept, if not from the original scientific source then maybe through hollywood. Even though the movie industry may blend more fiction than fact this idea is in fact a real scientific breakthrough that is quite helpful in making up our current and growing understanding of the world around us (and not just in the field of meteorology either).
Please read the attached two scholarly articles (in one PDF) labeled ”Chaos” by Gleick and ”Human Adaptation to Climatic Impacts on Biodiversity” by Gotfryd.
(make sure you are able to read the attachment to this email)
Then write a paper that is at least 2 full pages long, double-spaced, regular margins and 12 pt font to address the following prompt:
1. Is the issue of climate change really as simple as most people think or is there more to the story that is largely unknown to many? Address every one of the 6 given examples in this email above (use supporting info./data/articles in your answer from the charts/graphs above), from any sent via email earlier in the semester or outside sources (including your own reasoning and critical thinking). Please address each of the charts/graphs in this email at least briefly.
2. What are the main points Ed Lorenz made? What are the main points Dr. Gotfryd made?
3. How does the meteorological concept of the ”Butterfly Effect” extend outside the boundaries of meteorology and how can one apply this concept and the broader idea it represents to empower society in general and the individual in particular?
4. How does this idea strengthen your own self-confidence and reveal the power you have to make a positive change in your life, for those you care about and for the world?
You can use real-life examples (either your own life experiences, those in the articles or researched from outside sources) to help address the question. Note, back up your assessments with the information found in both articles. Failure to do so and just reading online blurbs instead of the attached reading will result in loss of points. You do not have to use any outside sources but if you do please cite them.
P.S. Important Note – I have spoken with the author of the 2nd pdf – Dr. Gotfryd on a number of occasions. He is an environmental scientist who received Canada’s first doctorate in Applied Ecology. As such his specialty is in the biological sciences. A lot of his paper quotes and references ideas, predictions and assumptions from other papers and presentations about ecology that tie into climate and predicted changes, since weather and climate (meteorology and climatology are not his areas of expertise). As a result, the ecological sciences rely on accurate information about other topics that affect them (such as weather and climate) to come to certain inferences and conclusions. So, if any discrepancies are noted in the decades since that paper was published it should be understood in the proper context.
